Iran – False flags flying over Hormuz Straits
Advisors to US President Donald Trump are routinely frustrated by the
President’s seemingly limitless ability to play down rising tensions with
Iran. Despite mock imperialist media outrage over alleged Iranian attacks
on oil tankers, and the shooting down of a US drone in mid-June, President
Trump has yet to light the fuse on what would be a cataclysmic intervention
in the Middle East.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
In early May close to Fujairah, a major tanker refuelling hub on the
Straits of Hormuz, four commercial vessels were sabotaged by persons
unknown. The imperialist media immediately put the blame on Iran, which
denied any involvement.
The strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important waterway for global
trade in crude oil. Tankers hauling about 17.5 million barrels pass through
it daily, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking from 2018. That’s equal to
about 40% of all the crude traded internationally. All oil exports from
Kuwait, Iran, Qatar and Bahrain, more than 90% of those from Saudi Arabia
and Iraq, and 75% of shipments from the UAE pass through this narrow,
shallow and hemmed in waterway… (see Grant Smith, Julian Lee and Javier
Blas, ‘Why tanker attacks raise fears over Strait of Hormuz’, Bloomberg, 14
June 2019).
Very few neighbouring oil producers can cope without access to the Strait:
Saudi Arabia can bypass it in part owing to an east-west 746-mile twin
mega-pipeline capable of carrying about 5 million barrels a day from the
oilfields in the Persian Gulf to an export terminal located in the Red Sea.
Despite being able to carry this huge amount of oil, the pipeline can’t
accommodate all Saudi exports, which usually run at about 7 million barrels
of crude a day and another 1.5 million barrels of refined products. Iraq
exports some oil by pipeline into Turkey and the Mediterranean, but the
bulk of the country’s exports go into the Persian Gulf and the Strait of
Hormuz. The same applies to Iran, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. The UAE can
partly bypass the Strait through a strategic 1.5 million barrels a day
pipeline from its oilfields into the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman
(ibid.).
Barely a month after the attacks near Fujairah, two further ships were
attacked on 13 June, one Norwegian and one Japanese. Again, despite
evidence to the contrary, including from the Japanese crew, the US was
quick to blame Iran, which denied involvement.
Yutaka Katada, the president of the Japanese company operating the Kokuka
Courageous tanker, spoke to the press after discussing the incident with
his crew:
“‘I do not think there was a time bomb or an object attached to the side of
the ship. A mine doesn’t damage a ship above sea level. We aren’t sure
exactly what hit, but it was something flying towards the ship’, Katada
said “(‘Oil tanker operator destroys US version blaming Iran for attack’,
Sputnik News, 14 June 2019).
Proletarian in an article published on its website commented that “These
incidents have happened in the context of US imperialist sanctions and
military threats against Iran that have led the middle-eastern country to
warn its adversaries that it is in a position to hamper shipping in the
Straits of Hormuz if they don’t back off.
“Iran is well positioned to disrupt crude exports in this vital shipping
lane, through which a fifth of the world’s consumption of crude oil passes.
The sabotage, however, has all the hallmarks of a false-flag operation and
could conceivably be explained by the fact that President Trump appears to
be at loggerheads with Mike Pompeo and John Bolton as regards US policy
towards Iran.”
Russian diplomacy
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was asked whether the situation
around Iran had dramatically worsened after the Gulf of Oman events, and
whether the Russian intelligence agencies had any evidence to corroborate
US allegations. Lavrov replied,
“We have no such intelligence. What we can see is this murky ‘evidence’
supplied by the United States – a videotape, some photos that raise serious
questions even from their closest allies.
“We are in favour of a thorough investigation of all these incidents. By
the way, the Islamic Republic of Iran wanted this in the first place.
“As for how the situation may develop, yes, indeed the developments are
alarming. I would not like to make any rash negative or disastrous
predictions. We must demand that all parties show restraint and refrain
from any harsh actions, especially following the same ‘highly likely’ logic
that the West used in many other cases. These ‘very likely’ and ‘highly
likely’ approaches are hardly relevant when it comes to dealing with things
that are way too serious. Only an investigation and an agreement to
normalise the situation are relevant here. The key to normalising what is
happening is fostering a dialogue between all the Gulf states. I mean both
the Arab monarchies and the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the support of
their neighbours, the League of Arab States, the Organisation of Islamic
Cooperation, the five permanent members of the UN, and the European Union.
“We have long been proposing to begin coordinating this kind of confidence
building process and building a security system. Those who rely on inciting
tension between Arabs and Persians, Arabs and Kurds, and inside the Arab
world – between the Sunnis and the Shiites, are not guided by the interests
of the peoples of the region, but by their own narrow geopolitical
motives.”
House Foreign Affairs Committee
On Wednesday 19 June, Brian Hook, the US Special Representative for Iran,
spoke at a subcommittee meeting at the House Foreign Affairs Committee in
Washington. At this meeting Mr Hook made a series of spurious allegations
against Iran, including allegations that Iran attempts to set up parallel
state structures inside various neighbouring countries, with a view to
undermining and subverting the governments of those nations. These
accusations were all made without any sense of irony (see Laurie Mylrole,
‘US envoy: Iran creates parallel institutions in other countries to expand
its influence’, Kurdistan 24, 20 June 2019).
“Our intelligence confirms that Iranian vessels operating in and around the
Strait of Hormuz on June 12 and 13, approached both the ‘Front Altair’ and
the ‘Kokuka Courageous’ before each vessel suffered explosions. We assess
this activity is consistent with an Iranian operation to attach limpet
mines to the vessels. I could also say that a senior IRGC official
confirmed that lRGC personnel had completed two actions. So we’re going to
keep doing what we can to declassify intelligence without compromising
sources and methods. But those who have been able to see the intelligence
come away without any question that Iran is behind these attacks” (Brian
Hook, quoted by Omri Nahmias in ‘US Secretary of State Pompeo, Trump does
not want war with Iran’, Jerusalem Post, 20 June 2019).”
Once again, classified, secret intelligence that nobody can see leaves
those who are allowed to see it (Hook, Pompeo, Bolton etc.) in no doubt
about its authenticity.
But Hook and his arguments were not taken at face value in quite the same
way as they might have been had Hook been working for Bush Jnr twenty years
ago, or even for Barack Obama in his two terms. In his contribution to the
meeting, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Eliot Engel
(Democratic Party-New York), warned that miscalculation could lead to war.
“Iran’s recent attacks on tankers in the Straits of Hormuz and the Gulf of
Oman are setting the region on a course to war,” he said. “We obviously
need to deescalate the situation before the worst happens. However, the
administration’s most recent steps seem to be pushing us more toward
confrontation then negotiation.
“…coming up with a phony emergency to circumvent Congress and admit these
missiles to Saudi Arabia, putting more boots on the ground for supposedly
defensive reasons, all framed by increasingly belligerent rhetoric – it
does bother me because we should be trying to prevent confrontation…
“I see a growing risk of miscalculation… I see more, in more and more
scenarios, that could spark a conflict. It could lead to the United States
stumbling into a war. And what I’d like to hear from the administration is
the clearest possible statements that the United States is not looking for
war with Iran and how we can get Iran back to the negotiating table. And if
we can’t hear that from the administration, I want to make it very clear,
Mr. Hook, that military action against Iran without the approval of
Congress is absolutely not an option. Congress has coequal power under the
constitution…
“We went through 20 years of going along with wars because we were told
certain things were fact when, in fact, they weren’t. So I think that
Congress has to play a major role” (quoted by Omri Nahmias, ibid.).
US imperialism spells out its Iran policy
In addition to the comments made relating to the recent tanker attacks,
Hook and his team spelt out the general policy of US imperialism towards
Iranian influence in the region and their attempts to contain it. A full
report, including footage of the session was made available on Kurdistan
News 24, and is available online. They report as follows,
“’We very much want to see Iraq strong, stable and sovereign,’ he [Hook]
told the Congressional panel, as he described what is essentially a
competition between the US and Iran for influence in that country.
“’We want the Iraqi military to have a monopoly on military force’, Hook
affirmed. ‘We do not want to see the PMF [Popular Mobilisation Forces],
especially those that Qasim Soleimani organises, trains, and equips to be
stronger.”
“Tehran’s modus operandi, Hook explained, ‘is to try to create two
militaries within a state and two states within a state’. Iran seeks ‘to
catalyse sectarian identities and dissolve national identities,’ as it
‘adds a religious dimension to political conflicts’ to mobilise support for
its parallel institutions and, ultimately, for Tehran itself.
“Iran has done that with considerable success in Lebanon, where Hizbollah
operates as a state within a state, and it is now trying to do the same in
Yemen and Iraq.
“Hook described the Trump administration’s ‘two primary objectives’ in
regard to Iran. The first is to deprive the regime of the funds that it
needs to carry out ‘its destabilising activities,’ while the second goal is
to cause Iran to accept negotiations on a new ‘comprehensive and enduring’
agreement that would rectify the shortcomings in the 2015 nuclear deal.
“The ‘comprehensive deal’ would address four issues: Iran’s nuclear
programme; its ballistic missile programme; its support for ‘terrorist
groups and proxies’; and its hostage diplomacy—the ‘arbitrary detention of
US citizens’, as Hook diplomatically put it.
“The Special Representative told the House panel that the administration’s
‘maximum pressure’ campaign was succeeding, as he stated that Iran’s most
recent budget contains a 28% cut in military spending, including a 17% cut
for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC.)
“He also noted that the ‘IRGC has told Iraq’s Shi’a militia groups that
they need to start looking for new sources of revenue.’
“Hook repeatedly emphasised that the Trump administration does not want
military conflict with Iran. The ‘core’ of our policy, he said, is
‘economic and diplomatic.’ However, Tehran has not responded in kind.
Rather, ‘it has responded with violence.’
“Hook’s public appearance before the House Foreign Affairs Committee was
followed by a classified session, also focused on Iran, with the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee. Following his Congressional testimony, Hook
departed for the Middle East, where he will hold meetings in Saudi Arabia,
the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain.”
US Drone shot down
On 20 June an unmanned drone aircraft was shot down by an Iranian missile
forcing the US Central Command (CENTCOM) to confirm that it had lost a
drone near the southern coastal province of Hormozgan.
Iran explained in state media that the US drone was conducting a ‘spy
mission’ over Iranian territory, but Washington insisted that their
aircraft was flying safely in international air space (‘Iran shoots down US
drone – Tehran warns Washington has “crossed red line”’, 21st Century Wire,
20 June 2019).
“This was an unprovoked attack on a US surveillance asset in international
airspace,” said Captain Bill Urban.
Despite the tensions of recent weeks, and to the surprise and no doubt,
annoyance of many, President Donald Trump dismissed the downing of the
drone as another ‘fly in the ointment’. Emerging from another meeting with
Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, Trump remarked,
“I have a feeling… that it was a mistake made by somebody who shouldn’t
have been doing what they did.
“I find it hard to believe that it was intentional,” he added. “It could
have been somebody who was loose and stupid.”
In a letter to the United Nations Secretary General António Guterres and
United Nations Security Council, Majid Takht Ravanchi, Iran’s ambassador to
the UN, wrote:
“While the Islamic Republic of Iran does not seek war, it reserves its
inherent right, under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, to take all
appropriate necessary measures against any hostile act violating its
territory, and is determined to vigorously defend its land, sea and air…
Iran condemns, in the strongest possible terms, this irresponsible and
provocative wrongful act by the United States, which entails its
international responsibility.”
Imperialism and war
Iran has every right to defend its territorial integrity, to protect its
borders and shield its people from the monstrous and savage plans of
imperialism. Should imperialism decide to launch a predatory war of
aggression upon the resourceful Iranian people, imperialism will unleash
forces which it will be unable to control. From the earth of the Middle
East, which is blood soaked and defiled because of the interference of
imperialism, will come an almighty anti-imperialist retaliation which will
surely lead not only to the defeat of imperialist interference in Iran, but
threaten its ‘loyal Jewish Ulster’ in occupied Palestine. Communists in the
imperialist heartlands will be duty bound to support the Iranian people in
the defence of their homeland, and render whatever support they are able in
the fight.
Death to imperialism!